This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 10
Weekly ranking: 19
Difference: -9
After the strong performance of the Seattle Seahawks defense against the high flying New Orleans Saints pass offense, it is difficult to have high expectations for Kaepernick this week. The game is in San Francisco and could be low scoring. The Seattle defense has yielded just 186 points through twelve games this season.
Top 200 ranking: 12
Weekly ranking: 23
Difference: -11
Romo has not played especially well the past few weeks. The Cowboys travel to Chicago to meet the Bears in a huge game for both teams – and their respective playoff chances. We do not like Romo's chances of putting up big fantasy points in a cold-weather game, and the possibility of precipitation. The Cowboys quarterback will have some big outings in the next few weeks, we just are not predicting one versus the Bears.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 5
Weekly ranking: 10
Difference: -5
Lynch is coming off a subpar performance as his Seahawks lit up the Saints on Monday Night Football. However, the 49ers now travel to San Francisco to meet the 49ers in a big divisional win for the home team. Seattle dominated the first meeting, but this one should be hard-fought and low scoring. Not a great combination for the tough runner. He will have a better matchup next week against the New York Giants.
Top 200 ranking: 8
Weekly ranking: 18
Difference: -10
Stacy has been a pleasant surprise after being a low pick in April's NFL Draft. He – and the Rams – travel to Arizona to meet a red hot Cardinals team. This is a game Arizona will be fired up for the win in an attempt to make a late playoff push. While we are big fans of the youngster, this is a tough game against a stiff run defense.
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 6
Difference: -2
McCoy is enjoying a great season. The game against the Detroit Lions this week will pose a big test for the Philadelphia running game. The Lions have yielded less than two yards per carry, on average, to opposing running backs the past few games. This rankings would have been lower but the receiving ability of McCoy allows him to avoid poor fantasy performances.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 10
Weekly ranking: 20
Difference: -10
Allen has had a great rookie season, emerging to become the unquestioned WR1 in San Diego. The Chargers host the New York Giants this week and we expect the Giants to focus on stopping the first year player. The Giants shut down Pierre Garcon and the Washington passing attack on Monday night and will look to do the same this Sunday to Allen and San Diego.
Top 200 ranking: 11
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -6
Nelson, like fantasy owners, is anxiously awaiting the return of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers was under center for this contest, Nelson might be a Top 5 fantasy option at the position. But, with Matt Flynn in the starting lineups, expectations are tempered …. even with the great matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
Top 200 ranking: 19
Weekly ranking: 26
Difference: -7
Wallace is coming off a big game and travels back to Pittsburgh to meet his former team. Even with Ike Taylor not performing at a high level, we expect coach Mike Tomlin to be prepared against his former player. The Steelers desperately need the win to keep playoff hopes alive and should be able to pull out the victory against the Dolphins.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 12
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -5
Clay has enjoyed a breakout season after the injury to Dustin Keller. Clay is athletic and speedy. The game in Pittsburgh will be a tough one for the Dolphins offense this week in the nasty weather.
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